USAF, Boeing May Modify Air Force One Requirements to Get Delivery by 2027

USAF, Boeing May Modify Air Force One Requirements to Get Delivery by 2027

May 9, 2025 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The Air Force is in talks with Boeing to modify requirements for its new VC-25B presidential aircraft, in a push to get them into service by 2027.

Boeing has given the Air Force a revised timeline that could bring the VC-25B aircraft earlier “if adjustments are made to requirements,” a service official told Air & Space Forces Magazine on May 9.

“The Air Force is coordinating with the White House and Boeing to further define the requirements and acceleration options while ensuring we provide a safe, secure, and reliable aircraft for the President,” the official added.

Darlene Costello, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and Logistics, told lawmakers during a May 8 hearing that the service and Boeing are aiming to have the new aircraft—called Air Force One when the President is aboard—ready by 2027.

That would be two years ahead of the current reported estimated delivery of 2029. President Donald Trump has voiced frustration over the persistent delays to the program and even suggested he may seek interim alternatives for a new place before his term ends in January 2029.

“They’re proposing to bring it into ’27 if we can come to agreement on the requirement changes that get us to that point,” Costello said. “That may be possible, but we believe some of those requirements may still need to be [in place].”

In written testimony, Costello detailed that the Air Force is zeroing in delays tied to “interiors supplier transition, manpower limitations, and wiring design completion,” while “actively pursuing options” to expedite the production. However, the proposed 2027 timeline is not guaranteed, as there are still a few “remaining issues” that the two parties are working through. According to Costello, a more accurate schedule will be available in the near future.

This would not be the first time the Air Force and Boeing have made tweaks to the program; without providing details, Costello noted that “we’ve done a couple things on that program actively working to improve the production and the design completion.”

The service and the manufacturer also previously agreed to ease security clearance requirements for workers to boost production.

“It will not be a permanent relief, but that has enabled Boeing to be more efficient and productive in assembling the aircraft and getting their mechanics to do the work,” Costello told lawmakers.

Boeing previously required “Yankee White” clearances for its VC-25B program engineers, a step above even the Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information (TS/SCI) clearance. It is reserved for those with direct access to or supplies involving the President or senior officials, requiring even greater scrutiny. The aerospace giant has previously reported issues with the clearances of some 250 employees lapsing.

When asked about the current security requirements and the duration of any relief, a Boeing official told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the company “continues to operate under the security requirements for VC-25B outlined by the U.S. Air Force.”

Trump’s desire for a new Air Force One dates back years. In 2018, during his first term, he secured a $3.9 billion deal for two planes, and he unveiled a new paint scheme in 2019. But the program has been plagued by delays and setbacks, repeatedly pushing its original 2024 timeline back.

Boeing and the Air Force have attributed the delays and cost overruns to higher-than-expected manufacturing costs, protracted negotiations with suppliers, other supply chain issues, engineering changes, and shortages of skilled workers with security clearances.

The two new jets are set to replace the 35-year-old VC-25A, which is based on Boeing’s earlier 747-200B models. The new planes are modified 747-8s, the latest variant of Boeing’s 747 series. A pair of 747-8s have been undergoing configuration, including a self-defense system, an electrical power boost, dual in-flight auxiliary power units, a mission communication system, an executive interior, military-grade avionics, and self-operating enplaning, deplaning, and baggage loading.

Most of the work is underway at Boeing’s San Antonio facility in Texas. Once the design and engineering are finished, both jets will go through testing, certification, pre-service support, equipment delivery, painting, and final preparation before Trump can board.

Kadena Sends ‘Message You Can’t Ignore’ with Huge Elephant Walk

Kadena Sends ‘Message You Can’t Ignore’ with Huge Elephant Walk

May 9, 2025 | By Chris Gordon

The Air Force displayed all the firepower it has amassed on Okinawa in an unusually diverse show of force this week.

In a May 6 “Elephant Walk,” Kadena Air Base showcased 24 F-35A Lightning II stealth fighters, drawn from multiple fighter squadrons rotating through the region; eight F-15E Strike Eagles; and two U.S. Army Patriot anti-missile batteries near the runway.

The Patriot system, owned by the U.S. or foreign partners, is deployed to hotspots around the world with significant missile threats, including Ukraine and the Middle East. Their inclusion appeared intended to send the message that the U.S. was not only prepared to operate from the base but to defend it against Chinese missile attacks.

On Okinawa, Kadena is located in the so-called First Island Chain off the coast of mainland China, which includes Japan; Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own; and the Philippines, a U.S. ally that has territorial disputes with Beijing.

In a release, Kadena’s 18th Wing said the “Elephant Walk” of aircraft and missile defense systems was a showcase of “combat readiness and regional deterrence” as part of the exercise Beverly Herd.

Other platforms also represented in the display: 

  • An Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint signals intelligence gathering aircraft;
  • A Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol, reconnaissance, and anti-submarine warfare aircraft;
  • Two Navy EA-18 Growler electronic warfare attack planes;
  • Two MQ-9 Reaper drones;
  • Two MC-130J Commando II special operations cargo planes;
  • Three E-3 Sentry AWACS command and control aircraft;
  • Six KC-135 Stratotanker refuelers; 
  • Six HH-60 Jolly Green II helicopters

The 18th Wing’s release called the display a “testament to the lethality Kadena AB can leverage to deter adversarial aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.” Chief Master Sgt. Brandon Wolfgang, the 18th Wing command chief master sergeant, said it “sends a message you can’t ignore.”

Obvious but unstated was who that message was for—China and North Korea.

Eventually, Kadena plans to receive F-15EX Eagle II advanced fourth-generation aircraft that will be permanently stationed at the base.

The aircraft from Kadena didn’t stay still. To practice the Air Force concept of Agile Combat Employment, under which aircraft will disperse to elude attack, Airmen and F-35s assigned to Eielson’s 355th Fighter Squadron and 355th Fighter Generation Squadron are staging out of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, which is also on Okinawa, from May 6-9.

At Kadena, Airmen from the 33rd Rescue Squadron and the 18th Civil Engineer Squadron conducted simulated airfield damage assessments May 8, and the CE squadron worked with U.S. Navy specialists to clear simulated unexploded ordnance from the runway.

Marine Corps Air Station Futenma hosts its own F-35Bs, the short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) variant flown by the service. The USMC also operates the carrier-based F-35C.

New Study: Air Force Needs to Work Now on How to Sustain CCAs in the Field

New Study: Air Force Needs to Work Now on How to Sustain CCAs in the Field

May 8, 2025 | By John A. Tirpak

As Air Force leaders consider concepts of operations for Collaborative Combat Aircraft, sustainment in the field—and easing that support by using standard parts and limiting variants—should be a key consideration, according to a new study from AFA’s Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Studies.

Based on a series of wargames, the study also concluded that using common weapons across different autonomous aircraft types will ease the logistics burden in wartime.

CCA sustainment is particularly important to maintaining a high tempo of operations and getting the maximum benefit for the Air Force, said retired Col. Mark Gunzinger, who authored the paper.

That’s because as long as CCAs are flying, either alone or with manned fighters, an enemy will have to “honor” them as a threat and expend effort, weapons, and sorties against them, said Maj. Gen. Jospeh Kunkel, head of Air Force Futures.

That only works if CCAs keep flying, and keeping those drones up in the air is a serious logistics challenge.

In the Mitchell-run wargames, “we’ve got 16 different [CCA] variants out there” Gunzinger said, and it’s important they not have 16 unique logistics trains to support them. “That is a critical consideration,” he said. The variants must be able to “share refueling equipment, other ground equipment, weapons, loading equipment, or whatever, to reduce the strain on our logistics force.”

Kunkel said the Air Force has spoken with its first two CCA airframe contractors—Anduril Industries and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems—about this and urged the companies to look “at motors that are the same, controls that are the same, actuators, tires … those types of things that we need” to sustain CCAs in the field.

“They don’t necessarily have to be the same aircraft, but certainly many of the components need to be the same,” he said.

Kunkel acknowledged, however, that a fundamental requirement is CCAs be able to operate for hundreds of hours without requiring significant physical interventions from maintainers.

The wargames didn’t identify a “sweet spot” limiting the number of increments or types of CCA drones that the Air Force should field to reduce complexity of support, but Kunkel said the numbers of types could be offset by using common elements or parts.

How to Take Off

The study found that CCAs that don’t require a runway for takeoff or recovery can help with the Air Force’s shell-game approach of Agile Combat Employment, in which aircraft are distributed over a wide variety of operating locations and move frequently, so as to not present a too-inviting target for an enemy with precision long-range munitions.

Kunkel said other considerations may still demand conventional takeoff CCAs, but he also suggested short or vertical takeoff is “is something that we need to look at” in future CCA increments.

“As you look at how we generate combat power, and the number of sites we can use … there’s something to a shorter takeoff length,” he said. “We’ve got to figure out what that takes because, generally, when you do a vertical takeoff aircraft, you decrease the payload, you decrease the range. And so there’s a balance that we need to strike here.”

On top of that, Kunkel reiterated recent comments he has made that the Air Force is looking at launching some types of CCAs not from the ground, but out of the back of other airplanes.

“We don’t necessarily want to be tied to air bases for CCAs,” he said.

Missions

One factor in the sustainment debate is the mission of CCA drones—the Mitchell study argued the service should favor“nonkinetic effects” like electronic warfare and other functions that can “degrade, disrupt or destroy” the electronic systems in adversary integrated air defense systems.

The wargames also saw a strong role for CCAs providing logistic support themselves, chiefly for delivering ammunition and supplies to far-flung locations.

The study noted that wargame participants commanding CCAs felt that the aircraft’s smaller footprint and lower cost allowed them to operate from bases closer to the enemy and “generate sorties closer to the fight,” Gunzinger noted.

Overall, the study concluded that the wargames showed some of the potential of CCA while still demonstrating they cannot substitute for fifth-generation fighters or the new F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter. Gunzinger also said CCAs shouldn’t be used to merely replicate the way the Air Force has fought in the past, but that the service should capitalize on their attributes to create new ways of fighting.

CCAs “must be additive” to the force, and not a replacement, Gunzinger said. As such, they need to be provided for with logistical considerations over and above those for the crewed fighter force.

SPACECOM Wants to Be Dynamic in Orbit. The Question Is How

SPACECOM Wants to Be Dynamic in Orbit. The Question Is How

May 8, 2025 | By Greg Hadley

U.S. Space Command is passionate about being able to maneuver satellites without having to worry about conserving fuel. But figuring out how to achieve that vision remains an open question, SPACECOM’s deputy commander said. 

There’s no question that “dynamic space operations” can make space assets more effective, said Army Lt. Gen. Thomas L. James during a Schriever Spacepower interview with AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

“We’ve done enough of the exercises, we’ve done enough of the training … and see what dynamic maneuver would do for us if we had it,” James said. “We see the advantages. I mean, it’s clear that’s there.” 

James’ boss, SPACECOM commander Gen. Stephen N. Whiting, stated strongly hia aupport for “on-orbit logistics and infrastructure” a year ago at the 2024 Space Symposium. Such capabilities would enable refueling by spacecraft equipped to do refueling and repair.

“Refueling has some disadvantages … because it’s a big fat target, depending on how you establish your refueling systems,” James said. Yet “our analysis that we’ve done on the SPACECOM side, and we’ve done a lot of this, kind of shows there’s a real case for the refueling.” 

Yet the Space Force remains unconvinced. USSF is responsible for developing and acquiring space capabilities, while SPACECOM is the operational command responsible for combat in space.  

Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton, deputy chief of space operations for strategy, plans, programs and requirements, questioned the concept only days earlier: “I don’t know that I see the clear military advantage of refueling,” according to SpaceNews. And Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman told Congress last year that the Space Force was still weighing the benefits and cost of refueling. 

At this year’s Space Symposium, industry and defense officials described plans for on-orbit demonstrations in 2026 and 2028. But foreshadowing Bratton’s comments, Lt. Gen. Philip A. Garrant told reporters he was waiting for the refueling “business case” to be proven.

One alternative to extending satellite life with additional fuel could be rapid satellite deployment. James acknowledged that May 8, saying: “If Gen. Bratton were here right now, he’d say ‘Or, I just give you more satellites rapidly, and that’s cheaper and easier for us to do than refueling.’” 

Astroscale is among the firms seeking to offer refueling services; the company’s APS-R refueling satellite is shown in this artist’s rendering. Courtesy of Astroscale

Operationally speaking, SPACECOM sees a clear need move satellites around when needed, which is why SPACECOM and USSF’s SpaceWERX innovation shop plans to award 10 contracts worth $1.9 million each for small companies to demonstrate technologies in a “Sustained Space Maneuver Challenge.” 

Alternatives to refueling are welcome, James noted. 

“It is the idea of artificial intelligence, machine learning, data analytics on the systems,” James added, so that satellite maneuvers can be made more efficiently and burn less fuel to achieve the desired effect. Exploring different concepts and tech is within SPACECOM’s mission set, but buying and deploying new capabilities is part of the Space Force’s mandate.  

“SPACECOM, we’re not in the acquisition or capability development business,” James said. “But we are certainly in the [business of generating] requirements, of understanding what our vision and view of orbital warfare is going to look like in the future, and what we have to have in place. … We are all ears for the best way to achieve whatever the effect is that we need to.”

Pentagon Opening the Throttle on New Rules for Software 

Pentagon Opening the Throttle on New Rules for Software 

May 8, 2025 | By Shaun Waterman

The Department of Defense is pushing ahead with a plan to automate and streamline the system it uses to ensure that software running on military networks is secure, and will start implementation next month, acting Chief Information Officer Katie Arrington said May 7. 

Arrington signed a memo two weeks ago “directing the development of a Software Fast-Track , or SWFT, Initiative” to speed up the process by which the Department of Defense certifies software to run on its networks. Then last week, her office issued three Requests for Information, seeking industry input. 

“We have got to get software faster into the Department of Defense,” she told an audience of defense contractors at AFCEA International’s TechNet Cyber conference, underlining the pace at which her office was moving. “We put the SWFT memo out, and within, I think, four business days, the RFIs hit the ground.”

The program “will be implemented starting June 1, 2025 so that we in the government can get to software faster,” she added, joking “I will break glass and crawl through it for you, but you cannot whine, all right?”

Arrington pledged to seek industry input into what she promised would be a responsive and flexible process. 

“Over the summer, you people are going to tell us what works and what doesn’t work,” she told industry executives as she strode between tables, interrupting her remarks more than once to call out friends or colleagues by name. 

The two-page RFIs issued last week ask for advice and proposals from companies large and small in three overlapping areas: 

  • Ways in which “automation and artificial intelligence [could] assist DOD-led risk assessment for expedited cybersecurity authorizations,” using a third-party supplied Software Bill of Materials—effectively an ingredients list for the software—and third party certification of secure development practices. 
  • Tools and processes “for consistent, secure, and accelerated risk assessments” of software and software development practices, including supply chain risk management requirements. 
  • Ways that an “external assessment [could] demonstrate technical expertise, cybersecurity, and SCRM experience” and what documents, processes and artifacts it would need. 

Responses, which can each be a maximum of 30 pages, are due May 20.

Automating the process of granting an Authorization to Operate, or ATO, is designed to take a cumbersome, manual, paper documentation process that can drag out for months and compress it down to days or even hours, said Arrington. 

“Lengthy, outdated cybersecurity authorization processes frustrate agile, continuous delivery,” reads the memo she signed April 23. “Additionally, widespread use of open-source software, with contributions from developers worldwide, presents a significant and ongoing challenge. The fact that the Department currently lacks visibility into the origins and security of software code hampers software security assurance.” 

In response, she pledged SWFT will lay out clear and specific rules and procedures for “cybersecurity and [supply chain] requirements” and “rigorous software security verification processes.”  

Once SWFT is complete, “I’m not done yet,” she continued, “We’re going to blow up the [Risk Management Framework], who’s with me on that one?” 

The RMF is a veritable bible for Pentagon information security personnel and has guided decisions about cybersecurity in the department for more than a decade but many criticize it for being slow and cumbersome.  

New B-52 Radar Program Has Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breach, May Be Reduced in Scope

New B-52 Radar Program Has Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breach, May Be Reduced in Scope

May 8, 2025 | By John A. Tirpak

Rising costs on the B-52 Radar Modernization Program—one of the key upgrades that will take transform the B-52H into the B-52J configuration—have triggered a law requiring the Air Force to notify Congress, and the service is now considering reducing the scope of the program.

The Nunn-McCurdy Act requires the services to tell Congress when a program’s cost or schedule estimate has increased substantially from its approved baseline. If there is a “critical” breach of cost or schedule—defined as a 25 percent increase—the Defense Department must certify the program as necessary for national security or cancel it.

The Air Force characterized the B-52 radar unit cost increase as “significant,” meaning a deviation of at least 15 percent. Service and industry sources said the increase is about 17 percent, meaning the program does not need certification to continue.

“The Air Force Program Executive Officer for Bombers submitted a program deviation report to the Air Force Service Acquisition Executive” regarding the radar modernization program on April 11, an Air Force spokesperson said. “The Air Force is assessing the cost and schedule growth on the program and initial review of the PDR indicates it will be a significant cost breach.”

Raytheon is developing and installing the new radar under contract to Boeing, the B-52J integrator.

“The next step in the process is for the Secretary of the Air Force to provide the formal notification to Congress prior to May 24,” the Air Force spokesperson said.

“To be clear, we are at the beginning of the process,” another spokesperson said. The B-52 RMP program manager notified service acquisition leadership that “there could be an increase in the cost estimate (not actual costs, just an increase in the estimate). The program office is currently assessing the estimates.”

As long as the estimate validates that the cost increase is “significant” but not “critical,” all the Air Force must do is notify Congress and submit a “Selected Acquisition Report.”

The RMP is replacing the B-52’s long-obsolete and problem-prone analog AN/APQ-166 radar with a new one—the Raytheon AN/APQ-188—that is a hybrid of the active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radars used by the Boeing F-15 and F/A-18, configured mostly for the air-to-ground mission. 

It is part of the overall B-52J update, which will install the new radar, new engines and engine pylons, digital engine controls, communications and other upgrades to the venerable bomber, giving it an extended service life into the 2050s. The planned Initial Operational Capability for the new radar is 2027.

In addition to providing ground-mapping functions and spotting and tracking aerial threats at range, AESAs in recent years have also been used for electronic warfare and communications.   

Darlene Costello, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics, told a House Armed Services subcommittee on May 8 that the breach had occurred. Asked by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) if she is confident the RMP won’t hit the “critical” threshhold, Costello said she is “pretty confident.”

That, she said, is “why we have decided to continue with the program. We believe we can find an affordable way forward to deliver the needed capability. We conducted an affordability review when we first got the information about the pricing coming higher than we expected.”

Costello said the Air Force has “refined the requirements down to a viable product of what [Air Force Global Strike Command] really needs to do, as opposed to possibly other items. That doesn’t mean we can’t bring in capability later, but for now, we’re focusing on getting this capability to the warfighter because it’s needed.”

She said the service doesn’t expect the increase will become “critical” or “close to” that condition, “but we are beyond the ‘significant’ threshold and we’re working through the process” to officially notify Congress.”

The 2024 report from the Pentagon’s Director of Operational Test & Evaluation, released in January, indicated that the RMP is largely meeting its technical requirements, although some questions remain about the shaping of the B-52’s radome and how that will affect performance. A low-rate initial production decision covering 28 of the Air Force’s 76 B-52s is slated for late fiscal 2026, with the remainder to follow after completion of initial operational test and evaluation in fiscal 2028. The RMP completed its critical design review in early 2022.   

In March, the Air Force put out a request for information asking industry about other “modified” radars that could be supplied off the shelf to equip the B-52, but cautioned that it was “not a solicitation” and was published for “informational purposes only.”

A Government Accountability Office report from 2024 noted that the RMP’s cost had increased from $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion.

T-7 Making Progress on New Ejection Seat, on Track for November 2027 IOC

T-7 Making Progress on New Ejection Seat, on Track for November 2027 IOC

May 7, 2025 | By Unshin Lee Harpley

The Air Force announced a successful ejection seat test for its T-7A trainer, and an official told lawmakers the service expects the jet to achieve initial operating capability by November 2027—two signs of progress for the program after many setbacks.

“We worked with our training community to make sure we are meeting AETC IOC requirement of November 2027,” Darlene Costello, the service’s principal deputy assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics told the House Armed Services Committee hearing on May. 7.

Costello’s remarks offer more clarity after the Air Force announced in January it was changing its acquisition plan for the T-7 in a bid to reach IOC sometime in 2027.

The announcement also follows a recent test at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., to evaluate the newly installed canopy and ejection system of the T-7 aircraft. Boeing recently redesigned the canopy to safely break apart, preventing injuries from shattered glass, and added a new seat sequencer that deploys the parachute for a longer duration, reducing the risk of neck and spine injuries during descent. Last month, the 846th Test Squadron tested the T-7’s revamped escape mechanism with both light and heavy mannequins during a 450-knot (518 mph) ejection. The egress system is scheduled for another test in August.

The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s T-7A Red Hawk program achieved a major milestone as the 846th Test Squadron at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., executed a high-speed test of its new escape system on April 16. (Courtesy photo)

The new trainer aircraft, developed to replace the 60-year-old T-38 Talon, boasts a single engine, twin fins, and stadium seating, providing unobstructed views for both the instructor and student pilots—something the T-38 lacks—while aiming to significantly reduce the time required to train fighter and bomber pilots.

But the production has faced safety-related setbacks during testing, pushed key milestones back time and time again.

In 2021, the Air Force revealed that the T-7 suffered from “aircraft wing rock” at high angles of attack, making it unstable in the roll axis. In late 2022, the Air Force and Boeing announced problems with the flight control software and escape system, stemming in part from the need for the seat to accommodate a wider range of body sizes. Faulty instruments also led to inaccurate testing data. And in early 2024, Boeing identified quality problems with some T-7 parts.

“We’ve now resolved the known ground-based training system requirements,” Costello added. “We’ve resolved the stability concerns; we did that in March of this year. Now, we’re working towards delivery to Randolph by October of this year. A recent qualification sled test on the egress system demonstrated optimal performance, so it’s showing good progress.”

In March, Boeing revealed that initial T-7A trainer production units are expected to be delivered in early 2026. Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph will receive the ground-based simulator this year ahead of its first T-7 deliveries scheduled for next year.

“The T-7A Red Hawk beddown is currently projected for [fiscal 2026], and the 99th Flying Training Squadron is set to be the first unit in the Air Force to receive the aircraft,” a spokesperson for the 12th Flying Training Wing at JBSA previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Boeing teamed up with Swedish aerospace firm Saab in 2018 to build the T-7, and since Saab opened its Indiana facility in 2021, the companies have been working on the aircraft’s aft fuselage there. Costello added that Boeing’s subcontractor will resume work, with assembly of additional key aircraft components set to begin in August.

What the Supreme Court’s Transgender Ban Really Means

What the Supreme Court’s Transgender Ban Really Means

May 7, 2025 | By David Roza

Editor’s Note: This story was updated May 8 after the Pentagon issued a new memo.

The Supreme Court’s May 6 decision to grant the Trump administration’s request to block a lower court’s injunction means the Defense Department can resume separating transgender service members under a directive issued in February.

In a May 8 memo, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed the military services to reinstate policies to place transgender troops on administrative leave, recall or cancel deployments, cancel transition-related medical care, and require transgender troops to adhere to the dress, grooming, and physical fitness standards of their sex at birth. DOD can also reinstate a hold on transgender recruits shipping to basic military training.

Voluntary separations for Active-Duty transgender service members will be allowed until June 6, and for Reserve members until July 7. After that, the memo directs services to “initiate involuntary separation processes.”

Yet two lawsuits could still stand in the way. 

The administration appealed to the Supreme Court after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied its requests to stay an injunction imposed March 27 by federal district court judge Benjamin Settle. The Ninth Circuit must still rule on the government’s appeal of the injunction itself, legal experts said, a process that could take weeks or months and which can also be appealed to the Supreme Court. 

Transgender advocates said removing the injunction allows the administration to act before the legality of its policy is determined. 

“The whole purpose of a preliminary injunction is to preserve the status quo while the case proceeds,” said Shannon Minter, the legal director at the National Center for Lesbian Rights and one of the lead attorneys representing transgender troops and recruits in a similar case in Washington D.C. “The court just turned that upside down.”

But what happens next remains unclear.

In granting the preliminary injunction in the Ninth Circuit case, Shilling v. Trump, Settle—who was appointed to the bench by President George W. Bush—wrote that “none of the government’s data supports its conclusion that banning transgender persons from serving is substantially related to achieving military readiness.”

A second case, Talbott vs. USA, is playing out in parallel. In that case, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals granted an administrative stay on an injunction ordered by a lower court, but only on condition that DOD not start discharging transgender service members while the court continues to review the government’s request for an emergency stay. The decision is still pending.

It is difficult to predict how the circuit court will rule. Supreme Court can set precedent that lower courts follow, but that usually comes in full opinions. The order, like most from the court, was brief. Multiple lawyers, including Sasha Buchert, a senior attorney representing transgender recruits and service members in the case, said it is difficult to speculate on the outcome.

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